S T O C K S !

There is something magical about stocks; it doesn’t follow hard rules. It is said that the best investor is the sleeping investor waking after hibernation into windfall profits. When the market is down, the instinctive urge is to scavenge discounted shares while on the other hand there are people dumping stocks in a frenzied ‘stampede response’ for no apparent reason. The prime-mover of ‘Market’ is our inherent greed and greed of people has basis in perception of profit, therefore the ‘Market’ is always a ‘perception bubble.’ If the trends are good the indices over shoot reality and if there is a sense of gloom then the ‘Market’ tumbles to unrealistic levels. It just impossible to for anyone to calibrate exact response to economic stimulus, after all economics isn’t exact science like Physics and Math.

All stable states are in equilibrium in universe, static equilibrium and dynamic equilibrium. Static equilibrium is inert while dynamic equilibrium swings from one end to other end like a pendulum. The driving principle of dynamic equilibrium is cyclical nature of events. The ‘Market’ reacts to a stimulus, since it is not possible to make a calibrated exact response therefore response is mostly an overkill, as a result temporary equilibrium shifts to unstable position. Shortly ‘Markets’ realizes instability and reacts to adjust towards stability but it is not achieved in single stroke therefore the stock market has daily fluctuations a sign of ‘Market’ veering towards stability unless another stimulus disturbs the equilibrium.

The only constant in stock market is its cyclical nature. Even though stocks loathe logic, the cyclical nature has basis on sound logic. The fundamental principle of economics has basis in supply and demand. Cost/profits move with supply and demand depending on glut or scarcity of commodity. The simple logic is that in the time of scarcity people invest in production facility but due to time lag in investment and increase in production the true demand and projection of demand do not match as a result a situation arises (gradually) where demand is surpassed by supply at this point people stop investing in production facility but the damage is already done as already invested capital still increases supply bring in a glut situation. At this point there is complete stop on investment in production. It takes a long time for surplus inventory to dissipate due to natural incremental demand and eventually overtake production led supply and create a supply scarcity. We again come to original situation investment phase. This cycle continues ad-nauseam.

Why can’t we find a safe exit point and entry point? There are too many variables for anyone to properly analyze and react. Besides the ‘Market’ is not one man’s creation, it is sum total of collective perception of consumer/ manufacturer/ service provider etc. therefore not even a super computer can properly predict exact bottom or high of market. Without doubt knowledge of individual stocks help but in conjunction with unpredictability of entire market uncertainty remains about its high and low. This is the time when gut feeling helps. Market volatility was first shown to be a significant cross sectional asset pricing asset pricing. The capital moves from one base to another on the basis of perception of people / experts in anticipation of optimum return on capital. Availability of liquid capital impacts stock markets positively whereas avenues of gains in real estate or in services sector or in any other area of economic activity drives away capital from stock market causing wild swings in market.

In conclusion we can say that no amount of analysis, care, safety precaution beats impulsive investment based on gut feeling and instinct. I have a relative, a kind of sleeping investor but a rank novice in knowledge of stock market but supremely confident investor and also a winner. Where as I have been able to keep my money and make incremental profits this person is truly a winner making money by the multiples rather than in percentage points. Having seen the stock market for close to fifteen years I can say invest with your instinct, stick to stocks your gut feeling suggests and hibernate. Wake to windfall profits. Good Luck!

Bandini Music

The soothing song form bandini http://kalihawa.googlepages.com/Bandini-Jogijabsetuaayameredware.mp3

Music & Noise

One man’s music could be noise for another man. Noise apparently is collection of random sounds having absolutely no pattern or periodicity. Music on the other hand have patterns, simple or complex, fast or slow in tempo. Noise also have an essential component; energy! But music can also have bursts of energy. As a teenager I thought ‘Naach meri jaan phata phut’ was great song to gyrate but later in life the same song is no more than irritating noise. Then there is folk music which probably evolved with our need to make rhythmic movement to sounds or vice versa, therefore have energy as an essential element.

And then most arts forms imitate a pattern of building up gradual tempo to reach a climactic crescendo as in classical ragas or western classical music. Pop music though begins and ends with relentless assault of energy filled percussion sounds.

Does life imitate classical style music, a pattern of gradual ripening of taste for less energy but more subtlety? In that sense music canvas of a young man is much larger as he enjoys all kinds of music without inhibitions on the other hand he has little focus nor long attention span.

D R E A M S !

My dreams are always short unless I am being chased by animals or assassins or falling in a dark bottomless well; in such cases they are adrenalin pumping endless scenes of huffing and puffing. But sometimes I have eerie surrealistic dreams of quiet serenity which leaves me disturbed for some time. Early this morning I had a short dream of a house which resembled a red-tiled house, I lived in as child in Secunderabad. This house, however, was standalone and larger with many more rooms. I waded through the completely dark house; none of the switches would work adding to my frustration. Then I saw my mother moving around the house with ease of a person used to live in the darkness. She had that trademark harried expression I could make out due to faded light seeping in through open doors and windows. She wouldn’t acknowledge my presence. I tried hard to switch some of the lights on but in vain. Soon the dream faded…..

Later in the evening annoyed at my father’s intransigence at not relinquishing TV set, my wife complained to me at the contrasting natures of my father and my mother. I remembered the dream of early morning and recounted it to her. She abruptly said, we should light a lamp before her photograph, I didn’t protest. In fact I felt an irresistible urge to do it immediately.

Why do we need God?

Because, we think! We think in an entrapped space through a software. There are layers to it, a part which comes to us preloaded and a part evolves with us. Happiness and melancholy are graded states of Mind, causing release of juices that either relaxes our muscles or agitates us in degrees. We have little control over these occurrences depending on how evolved our Mind is.

I felt good when a candle was lit before my mother’s frame.

Iraq

It's funny how complex things turn out in the end while a leader's simplification of a problem endears the populace. When George W Bush will leave, he will leave an intractable mess in Iraq, just the opposite of what he promised to clear. And people will be same again ready for a ride by some other demagogue.

Have we forgotten Vietnam? Ah! History repeats because we love simplistic generalizations.

Disappearing Professions

I grew up reading stories of lakaRhara. Often the stories would begin with,” aik ghareeb lakaRhara rozana jungle se lakarii kat kar lata aur use bech kar kisii tarah apna pariwaar chalataa.” The man’s profile would invariably of an emaciated person, hard working, honest, gullible yet with some earthy wisdom who would eventually triumph. When my daughter, some ten years back while passing through Kanpur, yelled incredulously,” suu’ar, suu’ar”( pig) I was quite surprised. Living in a mega town had deprived her of such a common sight that a live pig seemed to her an animal coming straight out of zoo.

However, saperaa is still around at least in literature and in villages and small towns while lakaR-hara has completely disappeared. Wonder if he found place in poetry also as in prose!

City

A city must have all the roads below the ground. Only residential houses on the surface. Office blocks too must jut out of underground and tower over the surface so that all the free floating crowd (akin to ants) remains at base below the ground level. Bazaars, sports arenas, Malls and every thing that pulls the crowd too must be below the ground. Only tranquil green on the surface and so few people.

City

FEAR !

All creatures fear unknown and death is irreversible passage to unknown. We all the time take calculated risk but against death element of calculation is missing. Death may not necessarily be termination of existence even if it is, what does it matter? If, however, there is life after death it’s uncertainty that causes fear in us. No matter how bad our present situation is, at least the consequences are known and we are coping with it. But we cannot reconcile to a position of uncertainty therefore fear any drift towards the unknown. We fear not necessarily physical harm to our being but also any alteration to our lifestyle having an element of uncertainty. To justify our fear we assign various objectives to life. But this is ridiculous. The truth is, we do not fulfill any of our own objectives but somebody else’s objective. How strange it would seem if a pawn in a chessboard acquires capability of thinking and starts on speculating purpose to its existence little knowing that it fulfills the objective of a detached grandmaster. In spite of well-documented and observed behavior of species that they exist to merely reproduce, humans due to their ability to think look for meaning in life. If there is meaning to life it makes sense to some remote entity in the same way as pawns exist for a grandmaster therefore on their own completely irrelevant. If we do serve some purpose in life, it is immaterial to us because it is a purpose meaningful to some remote entity....

When I go………

Wrong Acharya!
When I go something will go too.
I will leave a vacuum
Insignificant to you
But important to few
A monster in the beginning
Fading sepia image later
I will sink gradually
To a remote recess in their memory
Like a switch! Pop up
Again and not again
May be ever receding blob
But not quite meeting
Like the two railroad rails And
then they too will disappear
Leaving a vacuum for few
When I go………

Some Day I will Go!

When I go,
Something will also go
The software that tell me of Me
Will Crash !
And the Hardware will become just pulp
And the Superstructure that supported the Pulp
Will gradually grind to dust.
Nothing is wasted
Sorry, I don't know that
Nobody knows that.
Isn't reality is percieved electrical signal?
But even this perception has
Whether real or phoney
Exhleration and Sorrow.